This is possibly the most important week of the year for collectible car sales, with 1,022 vehicles under the hammer across five auction events.
It would not be surprising to see total revenue exceed $1bn. Bonhams, Broad Arrow, Gooding Christie’s and RM Sotheby’s are offering 577 vehicles with an average mid estimate over $1.1m. Mecum is offering a further 445 cars but has not published full estimates.
With so many cars offered simultaneously, Monterey Car Week provides important price discovery that is especially interesting given the general bullish sentiment, pockets of speculative behaviour and large dispersion YTD.
McLaren
Perhaps the most anticipated sale of the week is the McLaren F1 GTR, auctioned by RM Sotheby’s and previously owned by Nick Mason. Estimated in excess of $35m, it would not be surprising to see this figure surpassed significantly.
The F1 GTR represents a large proportion of the expected McLaren value sold, as prices for their most modern road cars continue to underperform. For example, four (of 149) Elvas are for sale, estimated flat over the past three years and at a discount to previous unfilled auctions (and MSRP).
Two Lanzante-modified P1s are for sale: a P1 GT (1 of 4), estimated between $3.5m and $4m by RM Sotheby’s, and a P1 HDK (1 of 9) offered by Mecum. These are the first public auctions of these models, following emergent signs of strength in the standard P1 market.
Ferrari
144 Ferraris are for sale across this week’s auctions, worth well over $200m and almost a quarter of the total. After a ferocious start to the year, there are several reasons why new highs are unlikely to be set.
Firstly, there is a good amount of availability of the largest movers YTD: three Enzos, two F50s, seven 458 Speciales, six 488 Pistas and four F12tdfs. Relatively late in this year’s season and with the rate of change having moderated since the Spring, momentum is waning. Furthermore, supply of competing primary product has increased, with speculation of a 296 Challenge Stradale and 12Cilindri Versione Speciale.
Porsche
With 137 cars offered, there are fewer Porsches for sale than Ferraris, including only two examples each of the 918 Spyder and Carrera GT. While the values of some models have squeezed hard YTD, speculative behaviour has been limited to only the rarest parts of the market, reducing the risk of a correction.
There is very interesting supply of historical models this week: the most valuable cars are the 1989 959 Sport ($5-6m), 1968 907 Langheck ($4.5-5.5m) and 1955 550 Spyder ($3.25-3.75m).
Bugatti
The first public trades of the Mistral may print, with two cars estimated in the $8-9m area, a reasonable premium to MSRP. Three Chiron and two Veyron lots will also indicate whether Bugatti is participating in the broader market rally.
The brand is at an inflection point marked by the end of the W16 engine and VW’s ownership. Focusing on higher margin bespoke vehicles, Bugatti is unveiling its next Programme Solitaire model, the Destrier, in Monterey.
Lamborghini
Lamborghini represents only around 5% of the expected value for sale in Monterey, even as many of its series models have followed the recent strength in Ferrari. Sentiment is heavily bifurcated, as the brand’s “few-off” models lack momentum after trading down into the secondary market.
For example, three of only 63 Sián FKP 37 are offered around $2.5m each, slightly down over the past two years and at a discount to MSRP. Based on the Aventador, this is a demonstration of limited investor interest in rebodied series cars.
Rarer and significantly more bespoke, the Essenza SCV12 offers good value in comparison, estimated between $1.4 and $1.8m. Built only for the track, Lanzante announced their road conversion at Goodwood Festival of Speed this year.
The largest price moves YTD
There are no surprises in the data showing which cars are estimated furthest away from their 2025 average value. The common theme is a reversal of depreciation; the largest proportionate moves are only possible from modest valuations. While the Ferraris and Porsches on this list have always been understood, sentiment towards the SLS and Senna has dramatically changed. Once heavily depreciated due to supply and brand, the Mercedes is now celebrated for its unrepeatable naturally aspirated V8 engine and gullwing doors. The divisive looks of the Senna, which may have contributed to its initial weakness, have now matured and set it apart from the rest of the McLaren range.
Repeat sales analysis
A clean way of estimating price changes across the market, in theory, is to identify repeat sales of the same cars. Matching chassis numbers, we have identified historical auction results for 78 of the cars that will be auctioned in Monterey. While the data demonstrate important macro themes, interesting micro situations are prevalent and pollute the signal.
For example, the Shelby Cobra offered from The Apex Collection (chassis CSX3328) traded at Retromobile in January for €1.0625m (~$1.27m). It appears that the car has since crossed the Atlantic, been repainted its original “Silver Mink” and is estimated between $2.25 and $2.5m (+87% to mid). This example demonstrates geographical arbitrage and the value of originality.
Not all cars have rallied! The worst performers include those suffering long depreciation cycles due to inflated MSRPs; for example, the Aston Martin Vanquish Zagato, Ford GT Mk II and Lamborghini Sián. Otherwise, pre-1970s cars remain in a bear market as their cultural relevance naturally declines.
