• Manufacturers are responding to demand for the most driver-oriented variants and scarcity, two factors which have driven the secondary market YTD

• The current primary market dynamics should have a dampening effect on recent secondary market price moves

• Bullish: Aston Martin’s pivot to super sports cars, McLaren once uncertainty lifts

• Bearish: Ferrari Special Series and Porsche GT3 on supply

This report considers each of the manufacturers with significant new product or corporate developments in the first half of this year. Positively, there remains a great focus on the types of models most in demand from enthusiasts and collectors, hence there is an abundance of rare cars. And, given that motorsport remains a lever to raise brand equity, it’s perhaps unsurprising that Aston Martin, Audi and McLaren are pushing this part of their business hardest.

However, the supply of series production sports cars is gradually being squeezed by fleet emissions targets, with the consensus profit-maximising strategy to concentrate on the EV and special ICE vehicle extremes of the business. This barbell strategy may maximise margins and is an attempt to perpetuate brand value in a tough competitive and regulatory environment. With primary supply focused on the most extreme parts of the market, it will naturally dampen the movements seen in the secondary market YTD.

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Alpina

BMW revealed the Vision BMW Alpina at Villa d’Este in May, indicating their intention to take the brand upmarket to sit between BMW and Rolls-Royce. The first model will be “inspired” by the 7 Series. While in the same segment and price bracket as the Jaguar Type 01, BMW’s decision to fit the concept car with a twin-turbo V8 indicates that Alpinas will be powered by internal combustion engines for now. Clearly, the driver-oriented luxury saloon is a very small market segment, however, BMW’s track record reviving the Mini and Rolls-Royce brands bodes well.

Aston Martin

While Q1 deliveries were marginally down YoY and AML stock remains in a bear market (expensive capital structure), there are emergent positive signs. Most notably, the Valhalla media embargo lifted in March to extremely high praise, deliveries have begun, and the first public auction at Mecum’s Indy 2026 sale in May closed at $2.2m, a reasonable premium over list. While it has been a long gestation period and their initial experience with the Valkyrie was not without problems, the success of the Valhalla finally provides validation and confidence to pivot further towards high-margin, track-focused cars.

Aston Martin’s press releases are dominated by endurance racing, where the brand is having some success, unlike the separate Aston Martin F1 team. With increasingly aligned product and several competitor brands conspicuously absent from motorsport, it feels like an opportune time for Aston Martin to push its global brand recognition.

Audi

The Audi Nuvolari exemplifies how the market for sports cars has evolved over the past decade. Based on Lamborghini’s entry-level model, the Temerario, in some ways it is a third generation R8. However, unlike the R8, the Nuvolari will be limited to 499 cars and priced around €600k. Audi is clearly responding to the market: the high-volume territory previously occupied by the R8 has been monopolised by Porsche, while increasing value is placed on scarcity. Whether or not Audi can sell all 499 units, the Nuvolari is high margin and should lift the Audi brand ceiling which had been gradually falling since Dieselgate. Audi’s entry into Formula 1 puts it in a similar position to Aston Martin, pushing product value and motorsport ambitions to boost brand equity.

Bentley

Bentley’s tried and tested strategy of incremental updates continued with the launch of the Continental GT S and GTC S models in January, and a revised Flying Spur in June. Furthermore, the 500 new Supersports have been allocated. Rare Bentleys struggle to hold their value, even if they do perform significantly better than the series cars. The poor residual performance is a function of the incremental product strategy, as well as the luxury and GT segments they occupy. The commercial success of this strategy implies that any changes Adrian Hallmark brings to Aston Martin are unlikely to materially improve the secondary market value of their GT cars.

Bugatti

Porsche announced the sale of its stake in Bugatti Rimac to HOF Capital in April, marking an end to Bugatti’s VW era. HOF is a venture capital firm focused on tech; Rimac’s EV technology may have been their primary motivation. While clearly incentivised to maximise Bugatti’s brand value, outside VAG and under VC ownership there is likely to be significantly greater pressure to be operationally profitable on a standalone basis. For now, this may continue to manifest itself through Programme Solitaire one-off commissions like the F.K.P. Hommage. To the extent that the DNA of Bugatti’s cars changes going forward, the existing VW-era cars will be supported by their finite supply.

Ferrari

Ferrari has begun executing its barbell strategy with the launch of its EV, the Luce, which has dominated media following its exterior reveal. Ferrari’s intention to push the brand into new markets without cannibalising any of its existing business is evident from the product specification, as well as the design. The trend towards quiet luxury and the extent of wealth creation in the technology industry provide some justification for the strategy, whether it proves successful or not.

On the other hand, Ferrari’s upcoming product launches are aimed at its core enthusiast customer base and respond directly to the secondary market movements we have seen over the past year or two. Most notably among the cars widely rumoured, the 296 Challenge Stradale will be the lightest road-going variant of the model, without the hybrid system, while the 12Cilindri MM will offer an H-gated “shift-by-wire” manual gearbox, similar to the system used by Koenigsegg. These cars will be launched while Ferrari is producing the 296 Speciale in greater quantity than previous Special Series cars; this primary supply may signal a top in the part of the secondary market which has rallied hardest YTD.

Lamborghini

Lamborghini’s lineup of sports cars is very young, with the Temerario having joined the Revuelto this year. At Lamborghini Arena in May, the company unveiled the Fenomeno Roadster, limited to 15 cars following the 29 coupes announced last year. Around €5m, it is dramatically more expensive than any other special Lamborghini bar the Veneno, and more than 8x the price of a new Revuelto. There is a large gap between the primary and secondary valuation of few-off Lamborghinis which needs to converge if the brand is to be able to scale this part of its business. Without motorsport involvement, Lamborghini is leaning heavily on personalisation and individual scarcity to derive value.

McLaren

In May, McLaren revealed the MCL-HY, their 2027 endurance hypercar, and the MCL-HY GTR. This track-only car will be offered to VIP clients through the Project: Endurance programme, which includes access to the Le Mans racing team and six McLaren events. Last year in Abu Dhabi, Sotheby’s auctioned a bill of sale for $7.5m. Project: Endurance follows the success of Ferrari’s XX programme and complements McLaren’s return to racing in the top class of Le Mans.

Alongside the W1 supercar, McLaren is pushing its brand ceiling and average selling price during an otherwise quiet period for its series road car products. Last year’s merger with Forseven, a British EV startup, implies that they may be about to implement a barbell strategy similar to Ferrari. However, the layer of uncertainty at this inflection point for the brand is at least a short-term hindrance to valuations.

Porsche

Porsche pioneered the increasingly popular barbell strategy, which is embodied by this year’s specific product releases. Aside from the electric Cayenne, the most important launch was the 911 S/C, a cabriolet version of the 992.2 GT3. Importantly, unlike the S/T coupe and the 991 Speedster, it is not a limited production car. By building EVs, Porsche is able to push the highest margin variants of the 911, which have generally become significantly more accessible during the 992 generation. It is also a clear response to the secondary market, which places great value on naturally aspirated engines and manual gearboxes, although, as demonstrated by 992 GT3 residuals, relative abundance reduces the financial attractiveness of these specific cars.

It is also worth acknowledging the increased focus on Sonderwunsch, another strategy driven by market dynamics and designed to maximise margins. However, while their EV-GT barbell strategy may have led, the revival of Sonderwunsch follows the success of programmes such as Ferrari’s Tailor Made over the past decade.

Ferrari continues to dominate the value traded: 36 cars (12%) traded with an average hammer price of $2.45m. Therefore, Ferrari accounted for 46% of the USD value traded, marginally higher than the YTD share (44%).

Of the cars making new highs, perhaps most surprising was the Aston Martin Valhalla. $2.2m is a reasonable premium over MSRP, a rare occurrence for Astons. And the bull market for Lamborghinis continues with a rare manual LP640 achieving €805k, more than double the value of an e-gear car.

To visualise many of the other dynamics, here are four comparison charts.

Ferrari Enzo v Maserati MC12: these cars have largely moved in lock-step. Only 50 Stradale (road-legal) and 12 Versione Corse (track-only) MC12s were built, so scarcity offsets brand value. The late optical out-performance of the Enzo is likely driven by idiosyncratic specifications.

McLaren Senna v McLaren Speedtail: in 2021, a Speedtail was worth almost triple the value of a Senna. These cars are now approaching parity. This demonstrates two dynamics: the aging of divisive styling and the market preference for track-focussed cars.

Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale v 430 Scuderia: these markets have clearly rallied hard, however, the degree of dispersion is extreme. The 360 CS has gone from trading at a slight discount to a premium over the Scuderia, as scarcity has become a more important determinant of value.

Ferrari F40 v F50: it’s not clear that the long-term trend for F40 and F50 values has changed, with F50s trading around double F40s. As the most common F-car and approaching 40 years old, it will be interesting to see if the F40 starts under-performing the broader Ferrari market. The car sold in Italy was the lowest print tracked YTD (original paint, non-cat, non-adjust, 40k km).

• This year’s price action cannot be explained by the “end of an era” narrative

• Ferrari has dominated the market in sales volume and largest price moves

• There have been dramatic relative value changes

• With momentum stalled, the market is at an inflection point

Overview

It has been a ferocious start of the year for the collectible car market, with some areas of extreme sentiment, volatility and dispersion. Despite geopolitical instability, values continue to be supported by macroeconomic conditions as the AI revolution remains the most important driver of economic growth and wealth creation (for example, ~75 OpenAI employees realising $30m in the latest equity round).

The “end of an era” narrative, suggesting that we are past peak car, has been pervasive, however, I am not convinced that it explains the price action we’ve seen. First, this is a generalisation driven by technical and regulatory developments affecting all manufacturers, yet the strength has clearly been concentrated and led by Ferrari. Second, it is not necessarily relevant to hypercars which are outperforming the market despite record primary supply. Last, while it is consistent with inverted generation curves, arguably this is at least as much a function of relative scarcity.

Rather, the 799 deliveries of the Ferrari F80 have begun and we have witnessed a reset of the relative value led by Ferrari’s new cars (see Ferrari market analysis). The sale of The Bachman Collection of extremely low mileage and distinctive Ferraris acted as a catalyst in January for the secondary market to catch up. Attempts to call other marques (e.g. McLaren) higher have not been lifted. It is testimony to Ferrari’s brand value that the price action has followed in this way.

There are emergent signs that the rally is stalling as sell-through rates have dropped. Examples of some of the unsold models from Monaco and Miami are going under the hammer over the next few weeks and will confirm whether it is healthy consolidation or a correction.

What has been trading, and which prices have moved most?

Perhaps unsurprisingly given the Bachman collection and subsequent price action, activity has been very concentrated on Ferrari: with >$550m in sales across major auction houses, the brand accounts for 44% of the USD market value sold YTD. 16 of the 20 most expensive cars sold have been Ferraris. The second most popular brand is Porsche with 9% of the market.

To consider which results have been the most surprising or market-moving, one can calculate Z scores. These measure the distance to mean as a multiple of standard deviations, therefore adjusting for market levels of variance due to factors like specification and condition. One would expect a unique low mileage car to trade with a Z score of at least 2.

The chart below shows the largest positive Z scores YTD, where I have sufficient historical data. Among others, the list contains many Bachman cars, an “Ispirazioni” special livery 812 GTS and a PTS Gulf Blue Carrera GT. However, these cars traded with more than specification or condition premia: the prevalence of Z scores greater than 10 demonstrates that this has been a structural repricing. The chart is topped by the Bachman British Racing Green 360 Challenge Stradale, a model line which has now ripped higher by a multiple of its previous value.

Wider context on this year’s rally

Considered over a long horizon, this year’s price action represents an abrupt change of gear, but it is not inexplicable. There are many macroeconomic reasons to suggest that the range-bound nature of the market between 2018 and 2024 was anomalous. Over this period, US M2 money supply rose +55%, the global market cap of crypto grew to ~$2.7tn and a revolution around generative AI began. Knight Frank estimate that the global number of UHNWIs ($30m+) almost tripled, from ~198,000 to ~713,000.

What the macro cannot explain is the degree of dispersion seen YTD, with the rally concentrated on Ferrari and other specific models which carry their own narratives and hype (for example, the Porsche Carrera GT). The chart below clearly demonstrates the dispersion seen between the LaFerrari and a small selection of other hypercars.

The significant auctions so far this year

Mecum, Kissimmee, January — the market gaps higher

The Bachman collection of very low mileage Ferraris sat at a rare intersection of two extremely popular market themes: unique specifications and modern classics. It acted as a powerful catalyst, forcing a repricing across these models.

Gooding Christie’s, Paris, January — Europe continues the rally

Not only did Europe confirm the jump in Ferrari values, but the positive momentum continued at Retromobile. Significant records set in Kissimmee were broken less than two weeks later: for example, the Ferrari 288 GTO record jumped from $8.525m to $10.911m (+28%).

Broad Arrow, Amelia Island, March — retrospectively, was this peak sentiment?

The breadth of the rally started declining with further gains very concentrated on specific models, leading to quite distorted relative value. For example, the Azzurro California F12tdf, which set a record at $4.185m, traded for 84% of the value of a similarly unused Monza SP2, and at a 10% premium to an F40.

Barrett-Jackson, Palm Beach, April — a more modern focus

As the top end of the market entered consolidation, interest rotated, allowing more modern cars to firm up. A record was set for the 488 Pista ($819.5k) while an SF90 XX, a current production car, cleared with an aggressive +70% premium.

Broad Arrow, California Mille, April – Gordon Murray T50

This single-car auction during the California Mille rally was notable because of the result achieved: the $8.035m price represented a +43% gain over a $5.63m print in December at RM Sotheby’s auction in Abu Dhabi.

Bonhams and RM Sotheby’s, Monaco, April — first signs of exhaustion

While stable, the market stopped setting new highs, with few surprising results across these auctions. Initial signs of exhaustion in Ferraris appeared with two 812 Competizione Apertas failing to sell, indicating discipline in the most modern cars.

Bonhams, Miami, May — consolidation or correction?

The most notable feature was the number of unsold lots; with momentum stalling in Monaco, opportunistic reserves were not met. Froth was clearly coming out of the market given the failure of the 335-mile Rosso TRS Ferrari F12tdf to sell, even at a reasonable discount to the Amelia Island record. Some interesting McLarens, for example the Lanzante P1 Spider, also failed to generate sufficient demand, demonstrating the brand concentration of the YTD moves.

Outlook

The market enters the summer period at an inflection point. The concentration of the YTD moves may not be sustainable, and short-term sentiment appears to be waning, yet the direction of travel is clearly supported by macroeconomics and financial market price action.

As production of hypercars remains very healthy, further gains are more likely to come from models which are not directly substitutable with this supply. Relative value across the market has changed substantially over only a few months and indicates areas of potential: the ratio of a LaFerrari to McLaren P1 is arguably stretched at more than 3x, for example.

There are several significant auctions through the rest of May, not least Broad Arrow’s sale at Concorso d’Eleganza Villa d’Este this weekend. The most interesting lots include the Pagani Zonda Unica (€9.5 - 12m) and Ferrari Daytona SP3 (€6.5 - 8.5m). The time series of especially topical cars including the Enzo, LaFerrari and 812 Competizione are about to be extended.

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• Long term primary and secondary market performance and how this has been aided by Ferrari’s corporate strategy

• Ferrari’s dominance of the hyper-car market, and its effect on older cars

• The short squeeze in Special Series cars and updated relative value analysis

• Market assessment of modern V12 Berlinettas

• The price performance of the SF90 and implications for the 849 Testarossa

Ferrari has long been arguably the most successful sports car manufacturer in the world, however, perhaps less obviously, the relative performance of the marque has accelerated over the past decade. Ferrari’s corporate strategy has enabled its cars to outperform in a strong macroeconomic environment.

The market rarely moves in a straight line, and this year’s gappy price action demonstrates a lack of efficiency, even if Ferrari is probably the most liquid brand of the collectible car market. There is a lot of interesting relative value which will be explored later in this article.

The long-term growth of Ferrari’s pricing power

Over many decades, through macroeconomic cycles and shocks, Ferrari has maintained its pricing power. Since the F40, the price of a new halo model has grown more than 6% annually; the CAGR has been closer to 9% since the Enzo. Importantly, this is genuine pricing power, as volume has grown concurrently, and the estimates are understated due to the cost of optional extras today.

Long term secondary market performance

The strength of the secondary market for Ferraris really accelerated after the millennium, initially focussed on 1950s and ‘60s cars before broadening through the 2010s. The time it takes for any car to be considered a classic or collectible has diminished, and the best-performing parts of the market are no longer the absolute oldest cars.

Another way of framing this dynamic is that much of the long-term price performance has come from the gap between the primary and secondary markets collapsing. And generation curves have flattened, enabling the unloved belly – neither new nor classic – to dramatically out-perform over the past decade, benefitting the F50 in particular.

Ferrari’s strategy – supporting secondary values

The incentives of Ferrari SpA have generally been aligned with owners, and the company has managed a virtuous cycle where strength in secondary markets has justified aggressive primary pricing and vice versa.

It is not merely the characteristics and quality of the new cars produced that have maintained the brand. Ferrari remains very aware of its heritage, treating it as an asset which can keep compounding. There are several elements of the business which directly support this.

Firstly, the Classiche programme, launched in 2006, is important because it promotes the longevity of the outstanding cars; as the viability of long-term ownership improves, the terminal values of the assets increase. In general, long-term maintenance is an area where scale rather than scarcity improves the investment case (reducing the cost of carry).

The Corse Clienti department, which includes the XX programme and Ferrari Challenge, is another strategic complement that generates more value than its direct PnL. Facilitating customer track days and racing reinforces Ferrari’s motorsport links, helps sell cars, and is another example of the advantage of scale.

Lastly, the Icona cars elevate the brand and celebrate its back catalogue by saving retro homages for extremely special models, allowing series production cars to explore modern design ideas. That said, as controversy over the return of the Testarossa name demonstrates, Ferrari must be very careful in balancing forward- and backward-looking product ideas.

Outperformance in the hyper-car market

The hyper-car market is where Ferrari’s outperformance is especially stark: the company’s share of revenue has increased dramatically from the days of the Enzo to today.

The Ferrari Enzo production run was limited to 399 units, extended to 400 with the final car donated to Pope John Paul II. A relatively low production run set upfront is why revenue from the car represented a low share of the market but helps explain why its value has performed so strongly since. On the other hand, the Carrera GT and SLR both traded below list for quite some time. Porsche’s production plan of 1,500 units did not bind, as demand could only be found for 1,270 cars by 2006. Similarly, Mercedes-Benz and McLaren hoped to produce 3,500 units of the SLR in Woking over seven years, but demand could only be found for just over 2,000, including roadster and special editions.

The iconic “Holy Trinity” of the 2010s consists of three cars of similar ethos and business plan, and Ferrari’s share of the revenue was higher. With 918 units priced from around $845k, the Porsche was the most accessible of the three. An independent McLaren sold 375 P1s for at least $1.15m while Ferrari were able to sell 499 LaFerraris and 210 LaFerrari Apertas. More than $1.4m and $2m respectively, the LaFerraris demonstrated that Ferrari has the power to sell more units at higher prices than the other brands.

It is in the 2020s, however, that the success of Ferrari has become truly dominant. By selling 799 F80 coupes with a USD MSRP around $4m, Ferrari is collecting a very large share of the revenue available in this part of the market. It is testimony to the success of the brand that, unlike the cars a decade earlier, this group does not have a collective name and Porsche is absent. While the broader hyper-car market has expanded, other offerings remain very niche (for example, Koenigsegg produces only ~50 cars per year).

These charts help demonstrate the success of Ferrari to date, but it is hard to imagine the brand becoming an even larger proportion of this market going forward. To the extent that Ferrari has profit maximised, it is unlikely that the F80 generates alpha for its owners. And there is a clear opportunity for Porsche to return with a hybrid supercar and elevate its brand.

The recent rally

While the F80 is arguably fully priced, its production represents a significant clearing event which is now taking the rest of the Ferrari market higher.

Having remained stable through 2024 and 2025, the market for the most collectible Ferraris jumped in January 2026 with auctions held in Kissimmee, Florida. The Bachman collection was a group of extremely low mileage cars which had distinctive specifications from the factory, before personalisation was a common feature. The cars represented the very top end of the market, so the hammer prices were able to shock. The jump from previous auction results probably represented both the general values rising as well as the spread between the best and average cars widening.

A cautionary tale

While there are logical explanations and narratives justifying the strength of the market, today’s environment is exceptionally strong. The F40 demonstrates well the pre-GFC dynamics and could become a relevant comparison for the F80 in a negative state of the world.

Following initial euphoria, F40 values plummeted in the early 1990s and remained reasonably stable at the lows for a decade. Financial crises and recession did not help, however, the market nonetheless had to digest over 1,300 units – more than triple the initial 400 planned. The prevalence of cars meant that the F40 did not follow the macro recovery in the late 1990s experienced by other collectible Ferraris, and it remained significantly discounted to the F50 and Enzo which followed. This price path allowed many of the cars to be driven material mileage and indicates that it is not necessarily the historical norm for Ferrari’s supercars to be financial investments off the forecourt.

One should also consider the relative value inside Ferrari’s current range. The F80 is marketed at around 7x the price of a new 849 Testarossa. Although consistent with the outperformance of rare models in the secondary market, this is a very large premium compared to the historical pricing of Ferrari’s halo models: for example, the F40 launched at just over 4x the price of a 1984-91 Testarossa.

The Special Series short squeeze (UK market analysis)

Special series cars have been rallying globally. In the UK, this has manifested itself as a short squeeze over the past two months, with quoted values gapping higher from levels where the market had become bid-only. Clearing levels are likely to settle somewhere between the most opportunistic classified ads and prints earlier in the year. While the wider market is firm, there has been a very significant outperformance of these specific cars.

There has been a change of relative value within this group of cars too, some of which may be durable, and some will be faded. From a market technical perspective, with only 119 original UK RHD cars, the Challenge Stradale market can hold the new levels most easily, although liquidity will be extremely thin and the relative value is stretched. With prices more than +100% over the past year, the car has outperformed all other Ferraris. Over the past decade, most Special Series cars have traded between 2x and 3x the value of the standard cars; the CS/Modena ratio is now greater than 5x.

For comparison, 430 Scuderias and 458 Speciales are still worth less than 4x the value of the standard cars. Arguably the Scuderia is the best value of the Special Series cars here: reasonably rare (only 117 coupes and 41 16Ms registered in the UK) while offering a rawer driving experience than the later cars.

The 488 Pista market has under-performed the rest of the Special Series YTD (+11%). With 501 cars in the UK (29% of 488s here), it is inevitable that there will be a reasonable number of owners willing to switch into different cars as the relative value changes. The Pista market may gradually catch up but bear in mind that it is most closely substitutable with the new 296 Speciale.

The relative performance in the secondary market is giving Ferrari a clear signal to increase the supply of new Special Series cars, which generate higher margins, and the 296 Speciale is anecdotally more accessible than its predecessors. It is a very similar dynamic to the launch of the 488 Pista: the cars initially depreciated to settle at a discount to the 458 Speciale, however, once the period of indigestion was completed and the supply of new cars abated, the fundamentals became more important in determining long term value.

V12 Berlinettas are hiding in the background

There are many famous opinions and paraphrases of Enzo Ferrari. It is safe to say that he viewed the engine as the most important part of the car, had a strong preference for V12s, and believed that road cars should use a front-engine, rear-wheel-drive layout. The 250, 275 and 365 series of the 1950s-70s were powered by the Colombo V12, positioned at the front, and include many of the most iconic and valuable cars the brand has ever produced (250 GTO, 365 “Daytona” etc.). The front-engine V12 Berlinetta is therefore as close as anything to the epitome of Ferrari.

Front-engine cars are currently discounted in the collectible car market, which places a premium on the mid-engine layout, perceived to be more dynamic and favoured for track driving. It is worth bearing in mind that this market pricing is not permanent.

The Ferrari 550 Maranello was unveiled in July 1996, offered from £143,000 in the UK and slightly over $200,000 in the US. In the UK, a 550 was worth 10-20% more than a F40 at the time! Ferrari built 3,083 coupes and 448 Barchettas, so there are just over two cars for each F40 in existence. The 599 is also a relatively rare car but, for comparison, there are ten for every Enzo in existence. With 457 Ferrari 550s delivered new to the UK, the car is rarer than a 488 Pista. Indeed, Ferrari’s V12 GTs arguably trade with little premia considering how much scarcer they are than contemporary mid-engine series production cars.

Given relative scarcity, heritage, and reasonable market values, I believe that there is scope for modern V12 Berlinettas to appreciate – especially the 599 which trades with less than 10% premium over the F430, despite being 4x rarer.

Is the SF90 a sensible long yet?

The under-performance of the SF90 has been dramatic, even compared to the 296. The selloff represents a combination of usual series production car indigestion, negative market sentiment relating to the hybrid system, and a correction from the euphoric post-COVID environment.

To ascertain whether the SF90 offers some value here, we can compare it to a potential floor and ceiling: currently, it trades 30% of the distance between a 296 and a new 849 Testarossa. This feels like a reasonable valuation, however, both goal posts remain depreciating assets. I expect the SF90 to ultimately settle at least equidistant, primarily driven by depreciation of the Testarossa.

Although power output remains an important driver of new car prices, the secondary market is becoming less sensitive to this parameter. Thus, models like the 849 Testarossa, the replacement of the SF90, sit in an uncomfortable position: the secondary market may not support its premium placement in the current range. This does, however, imply that the model may end up relatively scarce for this era of series production Ferrari.

It is worth noting how relative demand for hybrid models is influenced by government policy. To the extent that taxes and restrictions are focussed on the sale of new cars – for example, France’s Malus Écologique (ecological penalty) of up to €80k, or the UK’s planned ban of pure ICE cars from 2030 – the secondary market for hybrids will continue to under-perform. It must digest more primary supply while pure combustion cars become rarer. Therefore, while unlikely, a bullish scenario for hybrid values exists if the balance of policy shifts away from restricting the primary sale of pure ICE cars and towards taxing their use.

A few more observations:

• A lineup of highly distinctive cars with short product cycles appears to be a good strategy for maximising both shareholder and consumer value

• The recent steering wheel retrofit, replacing haptic controls with physical buttons, demonstrates a very positive approach to customer feedback and long-term support of car owners

• Ferrari’s pragmatic EV strategy is evidence that the company is very alert to the risk of diluting its brand

• The partnership with LoveFrom, signals a willingness to explore new ideas, a sign of both strength and the inherent challenge of developing an emotive EV sports car

• The most successful period for Ferrari’s road car business has coincided with an almost 20-year F1 championship dry spell

• That said, Ferrari’s recent success at Le Mans has no doubt helped give credibility to the V6 hybrid powertrain in the F80

• Perhaps allocation-driven demand for series production cars is a bull-market phenomenon

Summary

Ferrari has operated at an extremely high level, and a good macroeconomic environment for asset prices has enabled the value of its existing cars to perform very well. From here, it is hard to imagine the brand’s market share in certain segments rising further; Ferrari’s ability to sell F80s highlights an opportunity for Porsche. As very large power outputs become commoditised, relative value will change. The most explosive asset price growth, as experienced by the F50, has come from (relatively) depressed valuations. To this extent, modern front-engine V12 berlinettas offer an attractive contrarian bet.

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Recent trends

The most recent trend has been towards increasingly unique specifications, as manufacturers have scaled customisation to capture the value generated by the aftermarket wrap industry, and optimise for social media engagement. “Tailor Made” Ferraris and Porsche 911s in “PTS” colours have grown from <1% to >10% of cars produced over the past decade or so.

The proportion of Ferraris painted red at the factory has fallen from almost 90% in the 1990s to below 40% now. Similarly, the proportion of new 911s painted red has fallen from about a third in the 1980s to <10% now – Guards Red is no longer a free choice – while green is growing fast. The proportion of new Aston Martins painted black peaked at over a quarter following the financial crisis and has since fallen in half.

A slight shift towards green is evident across the UK market-wide data; otherwise, the mass market trends are in the opposite direction. The proportion of all cars registered black, grey, silver or white has grown from ~42% in 2000 to 70% in 2025.

As the general market becomes homogenised, uniqueness is booming in the supercar space. Simple, classic specifications are becoming harder to come by.

Heritage

National racing colours originate from the Gordon Bennett Cup of 1900-1905: red for Italy, white for Germany (later bare-metal silver), blue for France and green for Britain. These became formally codified between the world wars by the Association Internationale des Automobile Clubs Reconnus (AIACR), which later became the FIA.

Especially when sports car manufacturers have strong racing heritage, they have very close ties to these specific colours. Other important associations can include film and TV, a car’s launch colours, and cultural moments, the relevance of which may only be obvious ex post, for example the yuppie 80s and Guards Red 911s.

To the extent that the market is saturated with these colour specifications, they trade at a discount. This may not be the case forever. As the distribution of colours becomes more evenly spread, historical colours may trade with a premium due to lasting relevance.

Absolute rarity versus valuable scarcity

While a Maritime Blue Porsche is itself genuinely rare, its value is affected by the presence and availability of Voodoo Blue and Oslo Blue cars. Likewise, Signal Orange, Gulf Orange and Lava Orange are to some extent substitutable in the market.

When every car is different, the value of uniqueness itself must be zero. A premium may be given to paints which lack close substitutes, i.e. the whole colour group is not prevalent. Otherwise, the relative value of colours will be determined only by relevance and fashion.

Fashion

Of course, aesthetics are subjective and fashion is difficult to predict. However, a few simple comparisons can be made.

Colourful brake callipers and interior stitching within an otherwise subtle specification invoke the work of Paul Smith, a British designer successful for over fifty years who is famous for placing colour in subtle or hidden places. Monochromatic shades popular on many GT cars are reminiscent of Loro Piana clothes. Both approaches have become somewhat timeless; they are unlikely to age or depreciate especially poorly.

The use of bright and contrasting colours with relatively fussy details, common among “Instagram spec” cars, may be more akin to Balenciaga, whose business model is built on obsolescence. Quicker cycles of fast fashion imply steeper depreciation curves. What is a fad and what is an interesting example of the zeitgeist?

Conclusion

Car manufacturers are capitalising on strong demand for bespoke options and colours, increasing the diversity of cars and making the market more interesting. But where value has traditionally been found may no longer hold. Restraint on the configurator may reap long term reward.

• Very large and highly heterogenous, the collectible car market is ripe for sophisticated quantitative analysis

• Measurements of value can be inferred on a relative basis, much like in the bond market

• Diversification can be an expensive trap due to the structure of the negative carry

• Demand and supply drivers of scarcity have different long-term effects on values; supply-driven scarcity may provide more durable support

• The recent strength of nominal secondary market values has been a function of macroeconomic conditions

• Car culture is important in supporting values but introduces a free rider problem

• The market structure is complicated by information asymmetries and expensive liquidity, but opportunities arise from this

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Introduction

There is much debate about whether collectible cars are an investment. This really depends on your definition of an investment! Intuitively, to the extent that people buy cars for enjoyment and utility, it makes sense that prices are bid up high enough that the expected financial return is negative, or at least lower than other asset classes.

Nonetheless, the collectible car market cap. (total value of all cars outstanding) is very large and therefore the asset class is worthy of some quantitative analysis. A back of the envelope calculation: there are currently around a million Porsche 911s in existence and if we assume they have an average value of $100k, the implied market cap is $100bn. This would be a top 10 FTSE 100 company and larger than 386 of the S&P 500 constituents.

During my ten years working as a bond trader, the similarities between analysing financial markets and the classic petrolhead activity of perusing the classifieds became more striking. Looking through many ads to work out which cars are the best value, or infer what particular options are worth, is a form of relative value analysis. The two car garage conundrum is a constrained optimisation problem.

Commentators in any market love to attach narratives to price movements, however, often these are distinct from the underlying flows that cause them. Many of the dynamics or events affecting car prices are macroeconomic; to take an overall view on the car market is to take a view on things like the money supply, interest rates, inflation, equities and credit spreads.

So I thought it was worth diving deeper into the characteristics of the collectible car market to understand what we can learn from other asset classes.

The pricing problem

Collectible cars are heterogeneous: there are many different models and specifications, so the total number of parameters and combinations is huge. As a simplified example, if there are 25 different options (binary and independent) available when a car is new, then the number of potential combinations is greater than 33 million (2²⁵). Multiply that by 15 colours and the total number of potential combinations exceeds 500 million. It is fair to assume that the market is inefficient at pricing specific characteristics because it is computationally hard and rarely is a pure comparison observed (i.e. the contemporaneous sale of two cars which differ by only one parameter). This is the background for considering the relative value of different cars: whether the £80k green car with steel brakes and 15k miles is better or worse value than the £80k white car with ceramic discs that has done 20k miles.

Relative value analysis

Across financial markets it is common to transform prices into ratios which enable different assets to be compared like-for-like. For example, the price to earnings ratio (share price divided by the earnings generated for each share) enables an equity investor to see how much they are paying for a dollar of earnings. In real estate, there is the price per square foot. Of course, these are crude measures, and it takes some consideration to understand whether or not these values are justified by all the other characteristics of the asset.

It is hard to think of a ratio for the collectible car market that is easy to calculate and universally relevant; specific comparisons are often more interesting. To analyse whether a 911 GTS is better or worse value than its GT3 sibling, you could look at the ratio of GT3 to GTS prices across the different 911 generations and consider whether this is consistent with your opinion of which models are most special. Likewise, the ratio of the price of a delivery mileage example to a car with average mileage, calculated for different models and generations, would give an indication of which “collector grade” example is better value.

There is a lot of room to use sophisticated quantitative methods for this type of analysis, which will always remain an enjoyable part of the market: deciding what to buy! To a great extent, whether or not ownership of a car generates a return will be determined at this stage as the relationships between prices change over time. This analysis should also be used to determine when and at what price to sell a car, as well as how to best pitch it.

Modelling the cash flows

In comparing collectible cars to other asset classes, one must consider the cash flow profile of owning the asset. In this sense, cars are most similar to commodities, where there are ongoing costs for storage and insurance. These are of course not the only costs! This negative carry is also negative cash flow, so the total invested capital (the breakeven point) grows over time.

To the extent that the enjoyment of cars in the UK is limited in the winter, the negative carry implies that there should be quite a large degree of seasonality in pricing. This dynamic is also seen in commodities markets: the timing of delivery is important.

There is one important inference to make here which is counter to conventional financial wisdom: it is not at all clear that diversification pays, even in risk-adjusted terms. Most costs associated with owning cars are only partially proportional to the value of the car (e.g. insurance and servicing) while others are totally fixed (e.g. storage). Therefore, the cost of carry for four £100k cars is almost certainly worse than the carry of one £400k car, especially if that car is something like a 911 S/T.

Given negative carry, it is doubly as important that values of collectible cars remain supported. This is where there are some tailwinds.

Value from scarcity

An important driver supporting the prices of collectible cars is scarcity, which can be split into two categories. Firstly, regulated scarcity (supply side), which has emerged not only as an emissions issue discouraging supply of larger engines, but also as a weight and user experience penalty on new cars. Manufacturers are being forced to optimise for increasingly restrictive safety rules which is fuelling the narrative that “peak car” was a decade or so ago. Supply of the most collectible cars that are lightweight and have an analogue feeling is therefore genuinely capped. One must be careful to consider whether this narrative is running faster than reality though; Porsche and Ferrari are currently building more ICE sports and super cars than ever.

The second type of scarcity is driven by consumer behaviour (demand side) and hence the long-term effect on prices is more ambiguous. The most obvious example here is the manual gearbox, which was discontinued by many manufacturers for economic rather than regulatory reasons. The share of cars sold with a manual gearbox started falling quite fast from the mid-2000s with the popularity of paddles. The share of learner drivers in the UK who only learn automatic has risen from 6% to 26% in just over a decade, and many will probably never drive a manual again. While manual sports cars are currently trading with a premium due to demand from enthusiasts, demographic and consumer trends will likely limit their terminal values.

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Recent macroeconomic drivers

The supply of collectible cars could be modelled like Bitcoin: increasing at a decreasing rate, tending towards a cap. Mining becomes harder over time just as regulation is making the production of new sports cars trickier. We don’t know the ultimate supply of cars as we know them today, however, it will likely be reached well before 21 million Bitcoins have been mined.

To what extent does finite supply lead to higher prices, though? Everything else equal, nominal prices will rise because inflation is positive, and the money supply continues to increase. This effect is not the real value of the car rising, it is the value of the currency it is denominated in decreasing (the debasement trade). This is the attraction of owning a real asset immune from digital and monetary shocks.

Between January 2020 and December 2025, the broad money supply (M3) in the UK increased by around 29%. The monetary impulse was even greater in the US, where the M3 money supply increased by 45% over the same period. Monetary, fiscal and geopolitical (sanctions) policies have supported the prices of real assets globally over recent years, as demonstrated by the more than tripling of the gold price since early 2020. It follows that collectible cars have also been a beneficiary and could explain why prices in the US have risen faster than in the UK.

The importance of car culture

For the value of collectible cars to remain supported independently of the macroeconomics, the buyer base must grow. As an alternative asset with an uncertain financial return, the aspiration of ownership must be passed down, and the current enjoyment of ownership must offset the negative carry. Here, the short-term trends are very positive, with social media and ever more events enabling the enjoyment of cars to be shared. These need to offset long-term headwinds from the decline in young people’s interest to drive, and owners and the industry must work together to make running the cars as sustainable as possible.

Likewise, the trade-off between preservation and usage must be managed, especially considering the inherent free rider problem. The most profitable (but not necessarily enjoyable) strategy is to hide a car away from the elements and rely on others to champion the asset class. Yet if all owners were to do this, cars would be reduced to mere financial assets with negative carry and presumably trade at very low prices. Speculators may cause short-term price movements, but long-term value is based on an engaged owner base that is willing to enjoy their passion with others.

The market structure

The trading characteristics of bonds and cars are really quite closely matched, perhaps unsurprisingly as both markets are made up of a large number of similar but non-fungible assets/securities. They are both traded over the counter (OTC) rather than on an exchange, exacerbating the inherent information asymmetries both between buyers and sellers and between those aware of the trade and those who are not.

The dealer margin (bid/offer spread) is very wide in this market for a couple of reasons. Whether or not they are leveraged, a dealer must apply a discount rate to the assets on their balance sheet to cover the costs of the sheet or at least manage the opportunity cost of using the capital. If a car is expected to take six months to sell, a 10% discount rate implies a ~5% haircut purely to cover balance sheet costs. This was one of the mechanisms by which the abrupt rise in overnight rates between 2021 and 2023 reduced liquidity in this market.

Furthermore, the job of a trader in any asset class is to manage adverse selection. They are most likely to be offered poor quality cars and will find it easiest to attract buyers of the highest quality cars. Therefore, the best cars will turn over very quickly while the worst ones will linger on the balance sheet — they will be long (own) lower quality stock than the average car they sell, and the positions should be expected to bleed (depreciate).

So the dealer is in a constant battle to overcome these dynamics by charging a margin and making good decisions about which cars to take into stock (or how aggressively to bid any given car offered to them).

Sale or Return (SOR) may seem attractive, however, it is certainly not an arbitrage. To offer a car for sale in this manner is to be an unsecured lender to an unregulated business that in many ways operates like a bank, holding illiquid assets funded by short-term liabilities and often only a thin layer of equity. In general, being a creditor has an asymmetric payoff profile: a large probability of a small profit plus a low probability of (total) loss. The expected return from lending a car in this context is often limited when considered as the product of the potential saving and the probability of sale, which are often inversely proportional to each other. That said, lending to a well-capitalised institution for a reasonable benefit (the credit spread) can of course be a good trade.

There are many other ways of engaging with the market which can simultaneously optimise the price, reduce the cost of trading and help the dealer make high quality (less risky) PnL. After all, a trading desk in the City does not make all its PnL from unsolicited “flow” trades, even if these can initially appear to have high bid/offer spread!